JHT 2019-2022 Goals

Home

Mobile Site

Text Version

RSS

Local Forecast

JHT 2019-2022 Goals

Overview | 2019-2022 Projects | Past Projects | Admin Presentations | Staff | Committee | FAQ | Publications

Further improvements and extensions to the tropical cyclone logistical guidance for genesis (TCLOGG)

Change the GFS GRIB variable used in TCLOGG from PRMSL to MSLET
Further improvements to tracker for high latitude formation
Testing feasibility of expanding genesis probabilities to Day 6 and Day 7
Separation of 0-48 and 0-120 h regression equations for increased consistency
Development of ensemble regression equations for genesis using GEFS Reforecast v2
Development of regression equations for “most-likely time of genesis

Upgrades to the M-PERC and PERC Models to Improve Short Term Tropical Cyclone

Extend M-PERC to the Eastern and Central Pacific basins
Improve the PERC model using lessons learned from the M-PERC development
Provide additional diagnostics with PERC and M-PERC

Transitioning Ensemble-based TC Track and Intensity Sensitivity to Operations

Implement an operational product using an ensemble-based sensitivity software framework to be be used by NHC forecasters to design synoptic surveillance flight tracks and identify rawinsonde observations that would benefit TC track and intensity forecasts