JHT 2019-2022 Goals
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Further improvements and extensions to the tropical cyclone logistical guidance for genesis (TCLOGG)
- Change the GFS GRIB variable used in TCLOGG from PRMSL to MSLET
- Further improvements to tracker for high latitude formation
- Testing feasibility of expanding genesis probabilities to Day 6 and Day 7
- Separation of 0-48 and 0-120 h regression equations for increased consistency
- Development of ensemble regression equations for genesis using GEFS Reforecast v2
- Development of regression equations for “most-likely time of genesis
Upgrades to the M-PERC and PERC Models to Improve Short Term Tropical Cyclone
- Extend M-PERC to the Eastern and Central Pacific basins
- Improve the PERC model using lessons learned from the M-PERC development
- Provide additional diagnostics with PERC and M-PERC
Transitioning Ensemble-based TC Track and Intensity Sensitivity to Operations
- Implement an operational product using an ensemble-based sensitivity software framework to be be used by NHC forecasters to design synoptic surveillance flight tracks and identify rawinsonde observations that would benefit TC track and intensity forecasts
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