JHT 2019-2022 Goals

JHT 2019-2022 Goals (Text)

Further improvements and extensions to the tropical cyclone logistical guidance for genesis (TCLOGG)

Change the GFS GRIB variable used in TCLOGG from PRMSL to MSLET

Further improvements to tracker for high latitude formation

Testing feasibility of expanding genesis probabilities to Day 6 and Day 7

Separation of 0-48 and 0-120 h regression equations for increased consistency

Development of ensemble regression equations for genesis using GEFS Reforecast v2

Development of regression equations for “most-likely time of genesis

Upgrades to the M-PERC and PERC Models to Improve Short Term Tropical Cyclone

Extend M-PERC to the Eastern and Central Pacific basins

Improve the PERC model using lessons learned from the M-PERC development

Provide additional diagnostics with PERC and M-PERC

Transitioning Ensemble-based TC Track and Intensity Sensitivity to Operations

Implement an operational product using an ensemble-based sensitivity software framework to be be used by NHC forecasters to design synoptic surveillance flight tracks and identify rawinsonde observations that would benefit TC track and intensity forecasts

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