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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1125 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update the discussion 
and development potential for the area of disturbed weather near 
the Bahamas.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Paulette, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on 
Tropical Storm Rene, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

1. Updated:  Shower and thunderstorm activity located over the 
northwestern and central Bahamas and the adjacent waters continues 
to shows signs of organization.  In addition, surface observations 
indicate that pressures have fallen over the area since yesterday 
and, along with wind data, suggest that a broad area of low pressure 
could be forming between the northwestern Bahamas and South Florida.
This system is forecast to move westward at about 10 mph, crossing 
the Bahamas and Florida today and tonight and moving into the 
eastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.  The disturbance could become a 
tropical depression while it is near South Florida tonight, but it 
is more likely to become a tropical depression while it moves slowly 
west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend and 
early next week.  Regardless of development, this system is expected 
to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Bahamas, 
South Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days, 
and interests there, as well as along the northern and eastern Gulf 
coast, should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Another trough of low pressure is located over the north-central 
Gulf of Mexico.  Although the associated shower and thunderstorm 
activity is currently minimal, some slow development of this system 
is possible while it moves westward and then southwestward over the 
northern and western Gulf of Mexico through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

3. A tropical wave is located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo 
Verde Islands and is producing a large area of disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms.  Development of this system is forecast, and a 
tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days 
while the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across 
the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

4. Another large area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical 
wave is beginning to move off the west coast of Africa.  
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development 
during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form 
over the far eastern tropical Atlantic early next week while the 
system moves slowly westward.  Upper-level winds could become less 
conducive for development by Monday or Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Berg