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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 3 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Orlene, which is located inland over southwestern Mexico.

1. South-Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of 
low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  Although the 
thunderstorm activity is currently displaced to the southwest the 
low-level center, only a slight increase in organization would 
result in the formation of a tropical depression later today or 
tonight.  The system is forecast to move slowly northward or 
northward-northwestward during the next couple of days. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. South of southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to produce 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Any development of this 
system over the next several days is likely to be slow to occur due 
to strong upper-level winds.  The low is forecast to move generally 
west-northwestward during the next couple of days, but could turn 
northwestward toward the end of the week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Brown