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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Sep 13 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Southwest of southwestern Mexico:
Shower activity associated with a small area of low pressure located 
a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico has become less 
organized since yesterday.  Environmental conditions are only 
marginally conducive and any additional development is expected to 
be limited before the system merges with the disturbance to its 
east in a day or so. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

2. Near the coast of southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located along the coast of southern Mexico 
continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. 
This system is forecast to interact and merge with the disturbance 
off the southwestern coast of Mexico around midweek, and
environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for 
development by that time.  A tropical depression is likely to form 
during the latter part of this week while the system moves slowly 
westward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. 

Forecaster Brown