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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low 
pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico have become a little 
better organized today.  This system is expected to move generally 
northward, and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to 
form over the west-central Gulf of Mexico tonight or early Friday.  
A tropical storm warning will likely be required for a portion of 
the northern Gulf Coast later this afternoon, and Potential Tropical 
Cyclone advisories will likely be initiated on this system at 4 PM 
CDT (2100 UTC).  An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft 
is en route to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. 

Heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and 
southern Mexico during the next couple of days.  Heavy rains will 
also begin to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday.  
Please consult products from your local meteorological service for 
more information. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Pasch