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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 17 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A surface trough of low pressure is producing a large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extends several hundred 
miles south of the coast of southern Mexico.  Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for development of this disturbance, and 
a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of 
days while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 
5 to 10 mph, near the coast of southwestern Mexico.  Regardless of 
development, heavy rains are likely over coastal sections of the 
Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco 
during the next few days, which could cause life-threatening flash 
floods and mudslides.  Interests in these areas should monitor the 
progress of this system through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Roberts