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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Jun 16 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A surface trough of low pressure is producing a large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extends several hundred 
miles south of the coast of southern Mexico.  Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for development of this disturbance, and 
a tropical depression is likely to form late this week while the 
system moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, 
near the coast of southwestern Mexico.  Regardless of development, 
heavy rains are likely over coastal sections of the Mexican states 
of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next 
few days, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud 
slides.  Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of 
this system through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Stewart