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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large non-tropical low 
pressure system located about 700 miles southeast of Bermuda remain 
poorly organized and displaced mainly to the east of the low-level 
center. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally 
conducive for development during the next day or two. Although a 
subtropical or tropical depression could still develop during that 
time, upper-level winds are expected to become more favorable for 
tropical cyclone formation to occur by late Tuesday and Wednesday 
while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure could form in a couple of days over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea.  Some gradual development of this 
system is possible late this week while it moves slowly 
northwestward or north-northwestward over the western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart