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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A well-defined tropical wave located over the western Caribbean Sea 
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
Conditions are expected to be conducive for a tropical depression 
to form by early next week, but only if the system moves and 
remains over the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea or 
southern Gulf of Mexico.  Development will become less likely if the 
system moves over the Yucatan Peninsula or northern Central America. 
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce 
locally heavy rains, with possible flash flooding, over portions of 
southeastern Mexico, Central America, and western Cuba during the 
next several days, and interests in those areas should monitor the 
progress of the disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Another tropical wave located just east of the Lesser Antilles is 
also producing a large area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  This wave is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 
mph during the next several days, and environmental conditions 
could become a little more conducive for development when the system 
is over the central or western Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Berg