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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A well-defined tropical wave located over the western Caribbean Sea
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Conditions are expected to be conducive for a tropical depression
to form by early next week, but only if the system moves and
remains over the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea or
southern Gulf of Mexico. Development will become less likely if the
system moves over the Yucatan Peninsula or northern Central America.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce
locally heavy rains, with possible flash flooding, over portions of
southeastern Mexico, Central America, and western Cuba during the
next several days, and interests in those areas should monitor the
progress of the disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
2. Another tropical wave located just east of the Lesser Antilles is
also producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. This wave is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20
mph during the next several days, and environmental conditions
could become a little more conducive for development when the system
is over the central or western Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.