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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure has developed over the west-central 
Caribbean Sea just north of the northeastern coast of Honduras. 
Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms are slowly 
becoming better organized, and a NOAA buoy northeast of the center 
has reported winds to near tropical storm force during the past few 
hours.  Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for a 
tropical depression or a tropical storm to form on Friday or 
Saturday, but only if the system moves and remains over the waters 
of the northwestern Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico.  
Development will become less likely if the system moves over the 
Yucatan Peninsula or northern Central America.  Regardless of 
development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rains, 
with possible flash flooding, over portions of southeastern Mexico, 
Central America, and western Cuba during the next several days, and 
interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this 
disturbance.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 
scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow afternoon, if 
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Another tropical wave moving across the Lesser Antilles is producing 
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, accompanied 
by locally rainfall and gusty winds.  This wave is forecast to move 
westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next several days, and 
environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for 
development when the system is over the central or western Caribbean 
Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Stewart