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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms, along with gusty 
winds in these thunderstorms.  Significant development of this 
system is unlikely during the next day or so while it moves quickly 
westward at about 20 mph across the eastern and central Caribbean 
Sea. After that time, however, the wave is forecast to move more 
slowly west-northwestward, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form late this week or this weekend when the system reaches the 
northwestern Caribbean Sea.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. An elongated area of low pressure, located a little over 1000 miles 
east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a concentrated 
area of showers and thunderstorms mainly on the west side of the 
disturbance.  Environmental conditions are conducive for further 
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during 
the next day or two while the system moves generally 
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western 
portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

3. A large area of showers and thunderstorms, located over Guinea, 
Africa, is associated with a vigorous tropical wave.  Environmental 
conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some 
development of this system while the wave enters the extreme eastern 
Atlantic on Friday.  By early next week, however, conditions are 
forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation 
while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph toward the 
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Roberts