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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dorian, located over Grand Bahama Island.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
system located about 300 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands
continues to show signs of organization. A tropical depression is
expected to form during the next day or so while the system moves
generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible over the Cabo Verde Islands
today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure located over the south-central Gulf of
Mexico is producing a wide area of showers and thunderstorms. This
system has become better organized since yesterday, and a tropical
depression could form during the next few days while the low moves
slowly westward across the south-central and southwestern Gulf of
Mexico toward the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

3. A trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Bermuda. Although the associated showers and
thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization, the system
does not have a well-defined surface center. Gradual development of
this system is possible during the next few days while the
disturbance moves slowly northward or north-northwestward. Interests
in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

4. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands in a few days.
Some gradual development of this disturbance will be possible late
this week or over the weekend while it moves westward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky