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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dorian, located over eastern Grand Bahama Island.

1. Recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that the low
pressure system located about 150 miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands has become better defined. Shower and thunderstorm
activity is beginning to show signs of organization, and
environmental conditions appear conducive for a tropical depression
to form during the next day or so while the system moves generally
northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Locally
heavy rainfall will be possible over the Cabo Verde Islands through
Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure located over the south-central Gulf of
Mexico continues to produce widespread cloudiness and disorganized
showers and thunderstorms.  Some gradual development of this system
is possible during the next few days while the low moves slowly
westward across the south-central and southwestern Gulf of Mexico
toward the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

3. A trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Bermuda.  Shower and thunderstorm activity has
increased since yesterday and has also become better organized this
morning.  Gradual development of this system is possible during
the next few days while the disturbance moves slowly northward or
north-northwestward. Interests in and around Bermuda should monitor
the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

4. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands by the end of the
week. Some gradual development of this disturbance will be possible
over the weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart