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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, near the North Carolina coast, on Tropical Storm Helene,
located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, on Tropical Storm Isaac,
located in the eastern Caribbean Sea, and on Subtropical Storm
Joyce, located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Azores.

1. An Air Force reconnaissance plane investigating the disturbance in
the western Gulf of Mexico found a broad and elongated area of low
pressure with a few squalls.  Upper-level winds are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could still form before the
system moves inland along the western Gulf coast on Friday. Another
Air Force reconnaissance plane will investigate the system on
Friday if necessary.  Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico and
Texas on Friday and Saturday.  Interests there should monitor the
progress of this system, and refer to products from their local
weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is expected to form near Bermuda late this
weekend or early next week. After that time, additional development,
if any, is expected to be slow while the system moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Avila