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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A well-defined low pressure system located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is producing minimal shower
activity. However, environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and this system could still become a
tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves
generally northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

2. Shower activity has changed little in association with an area of
low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days while it moves little.  After a couple of days, a slow
west-northwestward motion toward Mexico is expected and land
interaction should limit development.  The Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft originally scheduled to investigate the
system Monday afternoon has been canceled.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

3. A tropical wave located just off the west coast of Africa is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of
this wave during the next several days while it moves westward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Forecaster Stewart