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Tropical Weather Outlook Text


800 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Thunderstorm activity with the broad area of low pressure in the
south-central Gulf of Mexico has become a little more concentrated
this morning.  A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is just now beginning its
investigation of the system, and will help to determine whether the
low-level circulation has become any better defined since yesterday.
Satellite observations overnight suggest that the low continues to
produce tropical-storm-force winds well to the east and northeast of
the center.  Upper-level winds are forecast to become more favorable
for development while this system moves northwestward across the
western Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical depression or tropical storm
could form at any time before the system reaches the Texas coast
sometime tomorrow.

Interests in and along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.  Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of
the middle and upper Texas coast and the western Louisiana coast
Monday night and Tuesday.  The system is also likely to bring
heavy rainfall with possible flooding across portions of eastern
Texas and western Louisiana.  For additional information, please see
High Seas Forecasts and products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

High Seas Forecasts can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and
WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

Forecaster Franklin

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