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Tropical Weather Outlook Text


200 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated
the broad area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico this morning,
and found that the circulation was too poorly defined to qualify the
system as a tropical cyclone.  However, thunderstorm activity
continues to become better organized this afternoon, and the low
will very likely become a tropical storm this afternoon or this
evening as it continues moving to the northwest.

Maximum sustained winds with the low are estimated to be near 45
mph, and interests in and along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
should continue to monitor the progress of this system.  Regardless
of tropical cyclone formation, tropical storm conditions are likely
along portions of the middle and upper Texas coast, and possible in
extreme southwestern Louisiana, tonight and Tuesday. The system is
also likely to bring heavy rainfall with possible flooding across
portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana.  For additional
information, please see High Seas Forecasts and products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

High Seas Forecasts can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and
WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

Forecaster Franklin

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