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Tropical Weather Outlook Text


200 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A surface trough of low pressure has moved off of the Yucatan
peninsula and into the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon.  The
system is accompanied by an area of thunderstorms and winds to
near gale force well to the east of the trough, but it does not yet
have a well-defined closed circulation.  This weather system is
expected to move northwestward over the next couple of days across
the western Gulf of Mexico, where upper-level winds are forecast to
gradually become more favorable for tropical cyclone formation.  An
Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the
system late this afternoon, with another mission planned for
Monday morning. Interests in and along the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.  For additional
information, please see High Seas forecasts as well as products
issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

High Seas Forecasts can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and
WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

Forecaster Franklin

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