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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the well-defined low in
the southern Bay of Campeche have not become any better organized
during the past few hours.  However, upper-level winds could become
more conducive for development later tonight and Wednesday, and this
system has the potential to become a tropical cyclone before it
moves inland over the Mexican state of Campeche late Wednesday or
early Thursday.  Later in the week, tropical cyclone formation
appears unlikely due to interaction with a cold front while the
system is over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Interests in Campeche
and elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress
of this system as tropical storm warnings could need to be issued
with short notice.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. A large non-tropical low located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean, a few hundred miles south of the Azores, is producing
disorganized thunderstorms and winds to gale force.  This system
could still acquire some subtropical characteristics during the next
day or so while it moves westward to west-southwestward at 10 to 15
mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for
subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by Wednesday night
and development after that time is not likely. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW.

Forecaster Brown

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