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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

1100 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms appear to be consolidating near a
developing low pressure system located about 300 miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression could
form in the next day or two while the system moves slowly northward
and then northwestward.  Locally heavy rains are possible over
portions of southwestern Mexico during the next few days and could
cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.  Interests
along the southwestern coast of Mexico and the extreme southern
Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this
disturbance during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Berg

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