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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

200 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure is located over the Bay of Campeche
about 300 miles east-southeast of Tuxpan Mexico.  An Air Force
Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating the
low to see if a well-defined center of circulation has formed.
Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for development, and
this system is likely to become a tropical depression later today or
on Tuesday while it moves west-northwestward near 10 mph.  Interests
along the western Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress
of this disturbance, since watches or warnings could soon be
required.  Regardless of development, this system will produce heavy
rainfall across the Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern Mexico today
and Tuesday, and across portions of eastern mainland Mexico on
Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

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