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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad and elongated area of low pressure is located over the 
central tropical Atlantic Ocean.  Although the associated shower 
and thunderstorm activity has increased somewhat since yesterday, 
it currently lacks organization.  Environmental conditions are 
expected to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form later this week while moving 
toward the west and then west-northwest at around 10 mph, toward the 
waters east of the Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Central Atlantic:
A small low pressure system located about 600 miles east of Bermuda
continues to produce occasional, disorganized shower activity.  
Strong upper-level winds and dry air are expected to limit 
significant development of this system while it meanders over the 
central Atlantic during the next few days, and the low is likely to 
dissipate by midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

3. Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A trough of low pressure could develop over the northwestern 
Caribbean Sea during the middle part of this week.  Environmental 
conditions could support some slow development of the system 
thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward over the 
northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of 
Mexico. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

4. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa 
Monday or Monday night. Some gradual development of the system is 
possible after that time while it moves generally westward across 
the far eastern tropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Berg