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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity associated with the broad low pressure area over 
the Bay of Campeche and the adjacent land areas has become a little 
better organized since yesterday.  This system will move little 
tonight, and little if any development is expected during that time 
due to interaction with land.  However, the low should begin to 
move northward on Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form by late Thursday or on Friday when the low moves across the 
western Gulf of Mexico.  An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance 
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the area on Thursday, if 
necessary.  Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will continue 
over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the 
next few days.  Heavy rains should also begin to affect portions of 
the northern Gulf Coast on Friday.  Please consult products from 
your local meteorological service for more information. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Beven