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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of 
Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low 
pressure area.  This system will move little today and tonight, and 
little if any development is expected during that time due to 
interaction with land.  However, the system should begin to move 
northward on Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
by late Thursday or on Friday when the low moves across the western 
Gulf of Mexico.  An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft 
is scheduled to investigate the area on Thursday.  Regardless of 
development, heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central 
America and southern Mexico during the next few days.  Heavy rains 
should also begin to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast on 
Friday.  Please consult products from your local meteorological 
service for more information. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Pasch