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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Surface observations along with satellite and radar data indicate 
that an area of low pressure located about 50 miles east of 
Wilmington, North Carolina, is gradually becoming better defined.  
The associated showers and thunderstorms are still disorganized, 
however, and are mostly confined to the east of the center.  The 
low is expected to move northeastward or north-northeastward near 
or just offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks later today and 
then along the mid-Atlantic coast tonight and Friday. Environmental 
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a 
tropical or subtropical cyclone will likely form later today or 
tonight.

Regardless of development, the system is expected to produce 
locally heavy rainfall that could cause some flash flooding across 
portions of eastern North Carolina, the coastal mid-Atlantic, and 
southern New England during the next few days. Gusty winds are also 
possible along the North Carolina Outer Banks today, and along 
the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts Friday and 
Saturday. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of 
this system and refer to products from your local National Weather 
Service office. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 
scheduled to investigate this system later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi