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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong and fast-moving
tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea have changed little in
organization this morning, and there are still no signs of a closed
surface circulation.  Although some gradual development of this
system is possible during the next day or so, the chance for
tropical cyclone formation should increase after the wave reaches
the western Caribbean Sea in a couple of days.  This disturbance is
expected to cause locally heavy rains and gusty winds over portions
of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today
and tonight.  These conditions should spread westward across the
central Caribbean Sea and reach Hispaniola by Monday and Jamaica and
Cuba by Tuesday.  Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the
Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of this
system.  For additional information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Kimberlain