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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Franklin, located a couple of hundred miles east-northeast of 
the Turks and Caicos Islands. 

1. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea 
near the northeastern coast of Honduras is producing disorganized 
shower and thunderstorm activity.  Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for gradual development of this system during the next 
several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this 
weekend or early next week while moving generally northward over the 
northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern Gulf of Mexico.  Interests in 
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, and Florida should 
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Emily):
A trough of low pressure located about 950 miles east of Bermuda 
(the remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily) is producing an 
elongated area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
Environmental conditions are becoming less favorable for tropical 
cyclone formation, and the low is expected to merge with a 
frontal boundary over the north central Atlantic in the next day or 
so.  For additional information on this system, including gale 
warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

3. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with 
an area of low pressure located midway between the Cabo Verde 
Islands and the northern Lesser Antilles.  Environmental conditions 
could become more conducive for development in a few days, and a 
tropical depression could form by early next week while the system 
moves generally northwestward toward the central subtropical 
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Bucci




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