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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with 
an elongated trough of low pressure about 1000 miles west-southwest 
of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical 
depression could form during the next several days while it moves 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central tropical 
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical 
wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms near and to the southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  
Further development of this low is possible while it moves toward 
the west-northwest or northwest at around 10 mph across the 
eastern tropical Atlantic, and a tropical depression could form over 
the weekend before environmental conditions become unfavorable for 
development early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

3. Western Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form in the central or western 
Gulf of Mexico by the beginning of next week. Some slow development 
of this system is possible thereafter as it moves westward and 
approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of 
next week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Bucci