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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms persist in association with 
an elongated trough of low pressure about 1000 miles west-southwest 
of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental conditions appear only 
marginally conducive for further development of this system, but a 
tropical depression could still form during the next several days 
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized in 
association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred 
miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Over the next few days 
environmental conditions appears mostly favorable for additional 
development while it moves toward the west-northwest or northwest at 
around 10 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form over the weekend before environmental 
conditions become unfavorable for development early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

3. East-Southeast of the Lesser Antilles:
Another area of low pressure could form in a day or so on the tail 
end of an elongated trough of low pressure, currently located more 
than 500 miles to the east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. Some 
slow development of this system is possible over the weekend into 
early next week as it moves generally west-northwestward at 10-15 
mph across the Lesser Antilles into the northeastern Caribbean 
Sea. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

4. Western Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather located just north of Hispaniola is 
forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week, where a 
broad area of low pressure could form. Some slow development of this 
system is possible thereafter as it moves westward and approaches 
the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of next week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Papin