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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Gamma, located just north of the Yucatan Peninsula over the 
extreme southern Gulf of Mexico.

1. A broad area of low pressure is located over the central Caribbean 
Sea, a little less than 100 miles south-southeast of eastern 
Jamaica.  Recent satellite wind data and visible satellite imagery 
indicate that the circulation is gradually becoming better defined, 
however, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has 
changed little in organization since this morning.  Environmental 
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or 
so, while the system moves over the central and northwestern 
Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is forecast to move near Jamaica 
through Monday, and then pass near the Cayman Islands early Tuesday 
and approach western Cuba by late Tuesday, and interests in those 
areas should closely monitor the progress of this system.  The low 
is forecast to move into the southern or southeastern Gulf of 
Mexico Tuesday night or Wednesday.  Regardless of development, 
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible across 
portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba 
during the next few days.  This rainfall could lead to 
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave over the 
central tropical Atlantic have become limited today.  The system is 
moving into an area of strong upper-level winds and development of 
this system is not anticipated. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

3. An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central 
Atlantic about 1000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda is associated 
with a surface trough of low pressure.  This system is expected to 
move toward the west-southwest at around 10 mph, and some slow 
development is possible during the next couple of days before it
encounters strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Brown




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