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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Gamma, located inland over the Yucatan Peninsula.

1. A tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea is producing 
an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental 
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early or 
middle portions of next week while the system moves westward or 
west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the central and western 
Caribbean Sea and then into the southern Gulf of Mexico.  Locally 
heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible across portions of 
Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next 
few days, and interests on those islands should monitor the progress 
of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with 
a tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic.  Some 
slow development of this system is possible during the next couple 
of days while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 
15 mph.  Significant development is not expected beyond that time 
due to the system moving into a region of strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central 
Atlantic more than 1000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda is 
associated with a surface trough of low pressure.  This system 
is expected to move toward the west-southwest at around 10 mph, 
and some slow development is possible during the next couple of 
days before it too encounters strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi




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