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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Gamma, located inland over the Yucatan Peninsula.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has become more consolidated since 
yesterday near a tropical wave located over the central Caribbean 
Sea.  Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive 
for development, and a tropical depression could form next week 
while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 
mph across the central and western Caribbean Sea and then into the 
southern Gulf of Mexico.  Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds 
will be possible across portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, and 
the Cayman Islands during the next few days, and interests on those 
islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is 
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  This system 
is expected to move toward the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 
15 mph, and some development is possible during the next couple of 
days before it encounters strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central 
Atlantic more than 1000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda is 
associated with a surface trough of low pressure.  This system 
is expected to move toward the west-southwest at around 10 mph, 
and some slow development is possible during the next couple of 
days before it too encounters strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Berg




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