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Tropical Weather Outlook Text


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on 
recently downgraded Tropical Depression Sally, located inland 
over southeastern Alabama, on Hurricane Teddy, located over the 
central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Vicky, located over 
the eastern tropical Atlantic. 

1. Thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure system located 
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has increased in coverage and 
organization this morning. In addition, recent satellite-derived 
surface wind data indicate that the low has become better defined. 
Upper-level winds are expected to gradually become more conducive 
for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during 
the next day or so while the low meanders over the southwestern Gulf 
of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled 
to investigate the disturbance later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles 
south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized 
shower and thunderstorm activity.  Environmental conditions are 
expected to be conducive for development during the next few days, 
and a tropical depression could form before upper-level winds become 
less favorable over the weekend.  The low is forecast to move 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

3. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far 
northeastern Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles east-northeast of 
the Azores.  This system is forecast to move east-southeastward and 
then northeastward at about 10 mph over the next day or two, and its 
chances of acquiring some subtropical characteristics before it 
reaches the coast of Portugal late Friday appear to be decreasing.  
For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued 
by Meteo France. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO 
header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at 

Forecaster Stewart

List of Atlantic Outlooks (July 2014 - present)
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