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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fifteen, located a couple hundred miles east of the Cabo
Verde Islands.

1. A trough of low pressure is producing small area of showers and
thunderstorms over the southern Yucatan peninsula, Belize, and
northern Guatemala. This disturbance and another tropical system
over the eastern Pacific Ocean are expected to produce heavy rains
across a large portion of Central America during the next couple of
days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.  By late Wednesday, the disturbance is forecast
to emerge over the Bay of Campeche and gradually turn northward.
Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
some development towards the end of the week when the system is
located over the western Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. A tropical wave located more than 500 miles east of the southern
Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Upper-level winds are expected to become
increasingly hostile over the system, and significant development of
this system appears unlikely while the disturbance moves westward at
15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen are issued under
WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen are issued under
WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

Forecaster Stewart

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