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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Jerry, located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands.

1. A tropical wave located about 700 miles east of the Windward
Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
The wave is expected to move quickly westward at about 20 mph during
the next few days, and some development is possible while it
approaches and moves across the Windward Islands this weekend.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for
development once the wave moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure located over the central Caribbean Sea
is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity, mainly
to the east and northeast of its center of circulation. This system
is expected to move slowly west-northwestward and significant
development is unlikely due to strong upper-level winds. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of
the Greater Antilles during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

3. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
likely to form early next week while the wave moves westward across
the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky




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