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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dorian, located just north of western Grand Bahama Island.

1. Recent satellite-derived surface winds indicate that the low
pressure area located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands is becoming better defined.  Associated thunderstorm
activity has been increasing and showing signs of organization, and
a tropical depression is expected to form later today while the
system moves generally northwestward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large low pressure
system located over the west-central Gulf of Mexico about 200 miles
east-northeast of Tampico, Mexico, is showing signs of organization.
Environmental conditions are conducive for a tropical depression to
form during the next day or so while the low moves slowly westward
or west-southwestward toward Mexico.  Interests along the
northeastern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system.  A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

3. A trough of low pressure, located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Bermuda, is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Some gradual development of the disturbance is
possible during the next couple of days.  Afterward, upper-level
winds are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone
formation.  Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

4. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands in a few days.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
week or over the weekend while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Stewart




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