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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the final advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie, located a little more than 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Azores.
1. A broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles south of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina, continues to produce disorganized showers
and a few thunderstorms. Satellite and surface data indicate that
the circulation of the low remains elongated and not well defined.
However, this system could still become a tropical depression this
afternoon or tonight while it moves slowly northwestward to
northward. By Wednesday, additional development appears unlikely
due to strong upper-level winds while the system moves northward and
north-northeastward near the eastern United States coast. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the system later this afternoon. Regardless of development, this
system is likely to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms across
portions of northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina
this afternoon and tonight. In addition, dangerous surf conditions
and rip currents are expected along portions of the North Carolina
coast today. For more information, please see products from your
local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
2. The remnants of Kirk are located more than 800 miles east of the
Windward Islands and are moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph.
This system continues to produce a large area of showers and
thunderstorms, along with winds to near gale force on its north
side. Although satellite data indicate that the system still lacks
a closed circulation, this disturbance could still redevelop into a
tropical cyclone during the next day or two before it moves into an
area of highly unfavorable upper-level winds as it approaches the
Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should
monitor the progress of this disturbance as gusty winds and locally
heavy rains are likely over the next couple of days even if the
system does not redevelop into a tropical cyclone. For more
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
3. Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie is forecast to meander over the central
Atlantic for the next day or so. By Thursday or Friday, Leslie is
expected to reacquire subtropical or tropical characteristics while
the cyclone moves slowly eastward to east-northeastward over the
north-central Atlantic. For more information on this system, see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.