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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 11 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, located over the west-central Atlantic Ocean, on Hurricane
Helene, located over the eastern Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm
Isaac, located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

1. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of
disturbed weather located over the extreme northwestern Caribbean
Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is gradually becoming better
organized. Ship reports indicate that this system is producing
strong gusty winds over the Yucatan Channel. Upper-level winds are
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by Thursday night while the disturbance
moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. If necessary, an Air Force
Reconnaissance plane will investigate the system tomorrow.
Interests across northeastern Mexico and the coasts of Texas and
Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system.  Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to continue
over western Cuba and portions of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form along a
trough of low pressure located over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.
Environmental conditions are conducive for some development, and a
tropical or subtropical depression could form by the end of the week
while the low meanders over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Avila

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