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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 11 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, located over the west-central Atlantic Ocean, on
Hurricane Helene, located over the eastern Atlantic, and on
Tropical Storm Isaac, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

1. A large area of disturbed weather over the extreme northwestern
Caribbean Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is a associated
with a surface trough interacting with an upper-level low. Although
this activity is showing signs of organization, there are no signs
of a surface circulation.  Limited development is anticipated
today, but upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive,
and a tropical depression could form on Thursday or Friday while the
disturbance moves across the western Gulf of Mexico.  Interests
across northeastern Mexico and the coasts of Texas and Louisiana
should monitor the progress of this system.  Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely over western
Cuba and portions of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form along a
trough of low pressure located over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.
Environmental conditions are conducive for some development, and a
tropical or subtropical depression could form by the end of the week
while the low meanders over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Avila




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