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Tropical Weather Outlook Text


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased today in association
with the remnants of Harvey, but the system still lacks a
well-defined center of circulation.  Some development of this
disturbance is still possible before it reaches the coast of Belize
or the Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday.  The system is forecast to
move into the Bay of Campeche early Wednesday, where environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for redevelopment into a
tropical cyclone.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall
and gusty winds are likely to spread westward across Honduras,
Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure located near the central Bahamas continues
to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while it moves west-northwestward across the Bahamas and then turns
northwestward or northward near Florida and the adjacent waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

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