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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A trough of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Harvey,
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Some
development of this system is still possible before it reaches
the coast of Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday. The
disturbance is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche early
Wednesday, where environmental conditions are expected to be more
conducive for redevelopment. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely to spread westward across
northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula
during the next couple of days. The Air Force reconnaissance
aircraft mission scheduled for today has been canceled.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
2. A trough of low pressure located near the southeastern and central
Bahamas is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for
development of this system during the next day or so while it moves
west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the Bahamas. Conditions
could become a little more conducive for development later in the
week when the system is near Florida or the adjacent waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
3. A large area of showers and thunderstorms located about 800 miles
east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is associated with a
surface trough that is interacting with a large upper-level low over
the central Atlantic. Upper-level winds are not conducive for
development of this system while it moves northwestward over the
central Atlantic at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.