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Tropical Weather Outlook Text


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems: 
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Lisa, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A broad area of showers and a few thunderstorms located several 
hundred miles east of Bermuda is associated with an non-tropical 
area of low pressure.  Recent satellite wind data shows that the 
circulation has become somewhat better defined, and addition slow 
tropical or subtropical development of this disturbance is possible 
during the next two to three days.  After that time, the system is 
forecast to encounter stronger upper-level winds and further 
development is not anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. Southwestern Atlantic:
A large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop 
across the northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic by 
the latter part of the weekend. The system is initially expected to 
be very broad and disorganized. However, it could begin to acquire 
subtropical or tropical characteristics during the early part of 
next week, and a subtropical or tropical depression could form 
during the early to middle portion of next week while the system 
moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the southwestern 
Atlantic. Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of 
coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and 
beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast, 
the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and northwestern 
Bahamas during the early to middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Beven

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