ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Nicholas, located inland over southwestern Louisiana.
1. Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization in
association with an area of low pressure located more than 500 miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. In addition, earlier
satellite derived winds indicated the system also lacks a
well-defined center. However, environmental conditions are still
expected to remain conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days. This
system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward across the
tropical Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
2. Shower activity remains poorly organized in association with a broad
low pressure system located several hundred miles to the
south-southeast of the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression is still likely to form during the next
day or two while the system moves north-northwestward to northward
off the southeast U.S. coast. Regardless of development, this
system could bring high surf to portions of the southeast and
mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts later this week. Additional information on
this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
3. A tropical wave located just inland over Africa is expected to
emerge off the west coast of Africa in the next day or so.
Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be somewhat
conducive for additional development while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on
Tropical Depression Nicholas can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT4,
WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov or hurricanes.gov
High Seas Forecasts for the system off the Outer Banks of North
Carolina issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center can be found
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at