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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
320 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of the disturbance in 
the Gulf of Mexico. 

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Larry, located over the central Atlantic several hundred miles 
east-southeast of Bermuda.

1. Updated:  Satellite and radar data indicate that shower and 
thunderstorm activity continues to gradually become better organized 
in association with an area of low pressure located about 115 miles 
southwest of Apalachicola, Florida. In addition, satellite-derived 
wind data indicate that the circulation has become somewhat better 
defined today. If these development trends continue, advisories will 
likely be initiated on this system as a tropical depression or 
tropical storm later this afternoon, and tropical storm warnings 
could be required for portions of the coast of the Florida 
Panhandle. After reaching the Florida Panhandle tonight, this system 
is expected to move across the southeastern United States and emerge 
over the western Atlantic by late Thursday, where environmental 
conditions appear unfavorable for additional development.  
Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall are likely across 
portions of the Florida panhandle and southern Georgia through 
Thursday, with localized flooding possible. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the western coast of 
Africa in a few days.  Some development of this system is possible 
thereafter as it moves west-northwestward over the far eastern 
Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Brennan/Papin




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