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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western 
Caribbean Sea during the next day or so from a tropical wave 
currently located north of Colombia.  Environmental conditions are 
forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression 
or tropical storm is likely to form late this week or over the 
weekend.  The system is expected to move northwestward over the 
northwestern Caribbean Sea and near or across the Yucatan Peninsula 
of Mexico on Friday and into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, where 
conditions are expected to be favorable for additional development.  
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and flooding will be 
possible through the weekend in portions of Central America and the 
Yucatan Peninsula.  In addition, this system could bring dangerous 
impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of 
the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas 
late this weekend and early next week. However, uncertainty remains 
large since the system has yet to form. Interests in these areas 
should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they 
have their hurricane plan in place. An Air Force Reserve 
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system 
Thursday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 650 miles 
east-southeast of Bermuda.  Only slow development of this system is 
expected during the next day or so due to unfavorable upper-level 
winds.  Afterwards, environmental conditions are forecast to become 
more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely 
to form late this week or this weekend while the system turns 
eastward over the central Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

3. A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located 
several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is 
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Some development 
of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical 
Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive 
for development by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Pasch




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