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Tropical Weather Outlook Text


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is 
located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the 
Windward Islands.  This system is producing a large area of showers 
and thunderstorms that continues to show some signs of organization. 
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for development, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few 
days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph.  
Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should closely 
monitor this system as it will likely be moving through that region 
on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with 
a tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles east of the 
Lesser Antilles.  Significant development of this system is 
unlikely while it moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at 20 
to 25 mph, passing through the Lesser Antilles today and then across 
the eastern and central Caribbean Sea later this week.  Regardless 
of development, this system could bring locally heavy rainfall to 
portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

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