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Tropical Weather Outlook Text


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Melissa, located several hundred miles south of Newfoundland,

1. A broad area of low pressure is located over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic Ocean just west of the west coast of Africa with
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so
while the disturbance moves west-northwestward to northwestward near
or northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Strong upper-level winds
should prevent any further development by midweek. This system is
forecast to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions
of the Cabo Verde Islands later today through Tuesday, and interests
there should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea and parts of Central America are associated with
a broad area of low pressure over eastern Honduras. This system is
forecast to continue moving west-northwestward across northern
Honduras, southern Belize, and northern Guatemala, which should
prevent tropical cyclone formation for the next couple of days.  By
Wednesday, however, the low is forecast to emerge over the
southern Bay of Campeche where conditions could become a little more
conducive for some organization to occur.  Regardless of
development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over
portions of Central America during the next few days, which could
cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms.  While
thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday, upper-level
winds are not particularly conducive for significant development of
this system over the next couple of days while it moves westward at
around 15 mph.  By Wednesday, as the wave approaches the Windward
Islands, upper-level winds are forecast to become quite hostile for
any further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Blake

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