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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lorenzo, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

1. A broad area of low pressure is located over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea between Grand Cayman and Jamaica, and is producing a
small area of showers and thunderstorms.  Development, if any, of
this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves to the
west-northwest near the Yucatan peninsula in a couple of days, and
across the southern Gulf of Mexico by Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

2. Disorganized cloudiness and showers near and east of the
southeastern Bahamas are associated with a weak surface trough.
Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur
while it moves to the northeast at 5 to 10 mph, well south and
east of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Pasch




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