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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Humberto, located less than 700 miles west-southwest of Bermuda.

1. A small low pressure system located about 1200 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for the formation of a tropical depression during the next
day or so while the system moves slowly northwestward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico are associated with a broad area of low pressure.  Some slow
development of this system is possible before it moves inland along
the northwestern Gulf coast Tuesday night.  Regardless of
development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding along portions of the central
and upper Texas coastal areas later this week.  For additional
information, see products issued by your local weather forecast
office and the Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Pasch




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